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Prediction for CME (2013-03-15T06:54:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2013-03-15T06:54Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/121/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2013-03-17T05:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.33
Dst min. in nT: -132
Dst min. time: 2013-03-17T21:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2013-03-17T10:46Z
Prediction Method: DBM
Prediction Method Note:

(Arrival Prediction by Manuela Temmer submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)


On Mar 18, 2013, at 2:31 AM, bojan vrsnak  wrote:

Manuela forgot to mention that DBM prediction concerns the ICME
arrival, not the shock. So, if DBM gives 11 UT for the ICME arrival,
one would expect a shock several hours earlier. Thus, quite close to
real shock arrival.

Best regards,
Bojan


On Mar 16, 2013, at 6:41 AM, Manuela Temmer  wrote:

Forecasting with DBM model:
Arrival at 1AU: March 17, 2013 at 10h:46min
Transit time: 51.52 h
Impact speed at target (at 1 AU): 631 km/s

DBM input used: CME speed 1000km/s at 15Rs, solar wind speed: 450 km/s, gamma=0.2 

Manuela

Lead Time: 18.78 hour(s)
Difference: -5.30 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2013-03-16T10:41Z

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